The six Gulf Cooperation Council states are on course to add about 126,000 hotel rooms by 2030, a 25% increase that would take total supply to roughly 616,000 keys, according to property consultancy Cavendish Maxwell. The same report shows that the rooms already open had a hard 2026: occupancy fell in the reported markets in the first eight months of the year, and rates fell in the UAE and Qatar.

The firm released its GCC Hospitality and Tourism Snapshot, January to August 2026, on 29 September at the Future Hospitality Summit World. About 490,000 rooms are operating in the region today.

Where the new rooms are going

Saudi Arabia dominates the pipeline. The report counts almost 94,500 new rooms planned in the kingdom, which would bring its 2030 total to nearly 275,300. The UAE is second, with more than 23,000 rooms coming, 11,180 of them in Dubai.

The UAE remains the largest existing market, with about 43% of current GCC rooms. It had 212,135 keys as of August 2026, of which about 151,380 were in Dubai.

What happened to trading in 2026

Vidhi Shah, Director and Head of Commercial Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, said the region entered 2026 with considerable momentum before regional tension from March caused a demand shock, disrupting air connectivity and weakening traveller confidence.

The January to August figures, compared with the same period of 2025, show how unevenly that shock landed:

  • UAE: occupancy 59%, down almost a quarter. ADR US$165, down 7%.
  • Dubai: occupancy down 27%. ADR just under US$168, down nearly 9%.
  • Saudi Arabia: occupancy 59%, down just under 3%. ADR about US$199, up 0.6%.
  • Bahrain: occupancy just under 37%, down 31%, the largest fall reported.
  • Kuwait: occupancy about 38%, down 18%. ADR just under US$199, up 3.2%.
  • Oman: occupancy about 48%, down 13%. ADR US$142, up nearly 1%.
  • Qatar: occupancy 60%. ADR US$117, down 4.5%.

The summary we read does not give RevPAR figures, a segment breakdown, or the number of pipeline rooms already under construction. It expresses occupancy declines as percentages and does not say whether these are relative changes or percentage points.

The outlook Cavendish Maxwell gives

For Dubai, the firm forecasts average occupancy of 60% to 66% and ADR of US$163 to US$183, both below 2025 levels. It ties recovery in the UAE mainly to the restoration of air links, given the country’s exposure to long-haul travel. The UAE government has provided a relief package of more than US$680 million for the sector.

Ms Shah described religious tourism as a structural demand base for Saudi Arabia that is less exposed to disruption in international travel, and said strong domestic activity leaves the kingdom better placed for the fourth quarter. In Oman, limited new supply this year should ease competitive pressure, with the Khareef season and the winter period supporting second-half demand. In Qatar, the MotoGP and Formula 1 races are expected to support occupancy and rate. She said the timing and extent of any wider upturn remain uncertain.

THD’s reading

The following is THD analysis, not part of the Cavendish Maxwell report.

  • Owners in Saudi Arabia face a supply test, not a demand test. The kingdom held rate and lost under 3% of occupancy in a year of regional conflict, but it is also due to grow its room count by roughly half by 2030 on these figures. Underwriting for projects outside Makkah and Madinah should assume 59% occupancy is a starting point that new supply will press on.
  • Dubai operators chose to cut rate and still lost occupancy. ADR down nearly 9% alongside occupancy down 27% suggests discounting did not buy back volume while air links were disrupted. A forecast ADR range that tops out at US$183 implies owners should budget for 2027 on a recovery in volume first.
  • Kuwait and Oman show the opposite choice. Both held or raised rate while occupancy fell by double digits. That protects positioning but leaves hotels running at 38% and 48% full, which puts pressure on fixed costs and staffing levels.
  • Suppliers should follow the pipeline map. Roughly three quarters of the planned rooms are in Saudi Arabia. Procurement and fit-out demand through 2030 will be concentrated there, whatever happens to near-term trading in the UAE.