HVS expects US hotel revenue per available room to rise 5.0% in 2026 to $105, driven almost entirely by rate, and reports that hotel sales volumes are up nearly 14% on a year ago even as cap rates drift higher. The figures are in the consultancy’s U.S. Market Pulse for September 2026, written by Rod Clough, President of HVS Americas, and published on 30 September.

The forecast through 2029

HVS’s national forecast table shows occupancy barely moving while ADR does the work:

  • 2025 (actual): occupancy 62.3%, ADR $161, RevPAR $100, down 0.3%.
  • 2026: occupancy 63.2%, ADR $166 (up 3.5%), RevPAR $105 (up 5.0%).
  • 2027: occupancy 63.4%, ADR $170 (up 2.5%), RevPAR $108 (up 2.8%).
  • 2028: occupancy 63.7%, ADR $175 (up 3.0%), RevPAR $112 (up 3.5%).
  • 2029: occupancy 63.9%, ADR $181 (up 3.0%), RevPAR $115 (up 3.3%).

Mr Clough writes that ADR has run well beyond initial expectations this year, which he attributes to a strong stock market and more bookings of luxury and upper-upscale stays. RevPAR grew just over 10% in the first half of September despite the shift in Labor Day timing. HVS expects a healthy autumn, with corporate transient and meeting indicators for October through Thanksgiving looking favourable. It expects ADR growth to moderate slightly in 2027 without the World Cup.

He names two further supports for demand: youth and collegiate sports travel, and Americans holidaying at home, which has offset a continued fall in inbound international visitors, particularly from Canada. The article gives no segment or market-level figures.

Transactions: more deals, slightly higher yields

Citing MSCI Real Capital Analytics, HVS says almost 1,000 hotels sold in the first half of 2026, a rise of nearly 14% on the first half of 2025. The average cap rate was 8.2% on deals where one was reported, and the average price per key was $137,000, almost equal to a year earlier.

For the third quarter to mid-September, the average cap rate was 8.4% and the average price per key $142,000. Mr Clough refers to a recent Federal Reserve interest rate increase and says buyers and sellers have become more realistic about financing conditions. He adds that healthy trailing 12-month operating statements after the summer are prompting significant refinancing activity. Total dollar volume is not given.

Labour: full-time roles and contractors

From property interviews, HVS reports line-level staffing difficulties, especially in departments that previously drew on a large pool of immigrant applicants. Owners are responding by offering more full-time positions with benefits in place of part-time ones, which raises costs, and by relying more on third-party contract labour, which can be scaled with occupancy. One full-service hotel Mr Clough inspected uses commercial robotic vacuums to clean public areas, mostly overnight.

THD’s reading

The following is THD analysis, not HVS’s.

  • Price per key is flat while RevPAR is up 5%. If income is rising and prices per room are not, the gain is being absorbed by higher cap rates and financing costs. Sellers waiting for pricing to catch up with trading may wait some time, and HVS’s own comment that these conditions are likely to persist supports that.
  • The forecast depends on the top of the market. HVS ties this year’s rate growth to share prices and luxury bookings. Owners of midscale and economy hotels should not assume the national 3.5% ADR gain applies to them, and a market correction would hit the main driver directly.
  • 2027 budgets need a lower rate assumption. RevPAR growth of 2.8% with ADR up 2.5% is close to what many operators will face in wage growth. With more full-time, benefited roles being created, margin protection will have to come from productivity, not rate.
  • Refinance while trailing numbers are strong. A summer of double-digit RevPAR weeks flatters trailing 12-month statements now. Owners with 2027 maturities have a case for approaching lenders before weaker comparisons arrive.